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Virgin Atlantic buying 15 787s?

By IAG | March 19th, 2007 | Posted in 787, a340, airbus, boeing | No Comments

In this morning's ATW, Geoff Thomas writes that "informed opinion from London sources that the 787 order came from Virgin Atlantic Airways" of a UFO order for 15 787s Boeing listed last week. He further points out Boeing now has over 500 orders for the 787.

The switch to Boeing by Virgin Atlantic is something we speculated about last week. By making the switch based on "green" issues, Virgin Atlantic tries a novel approach to dropping the A340-600. But we will wait to hear exactly which words are used if and when this announced.

More importantly is how these 787s can and might be used. Last week Virgin Atlantic provided a peek at their thinking over the open skies issue. By moving into other European airports and flying to New York, they run the risk of operating with no local feed in cities like Milan. However the move is still clever. Virgin Atlantic has good brand awareness in New York could acquire traffic from there to the European cities it will be serving. Moreover, if it uses 787s for this service, it will be operating the lowest seat cost equipment, providing a revenue cushion.

If Virgin "loses" Heathrow it might de facto turn JFK into a hub for Euro-service. And the 787 will be the perfect foil with which to do it. Consequently we also think British Airways is now a 787 candidate.

While mentioning BA, the "crazy notion" written about below was not based on fact. It was an idea of what might or could happen. If BA selects the 787, which seems to be likely in every pundit's view, we still think the airline will look seriously at the A380. But that's just our opinion.

Virgin Atlantic buying 15 787s?

By IAG | March 19th, 2007 | Posted in 787, a340, airbus, boeing | 1 Comment

In this morning's ATW, Geoff Thomas writes that "informed opinion from London sources that the 787 order came from Virgin Atlantic Airways" of a UFO order for 15 787s Boeing listed last week. He further points out Boeing now has over 500 orders for the 787.

The switch to Boeing by Virgin Atlantic is something we speculated about last week. By making the switch based on "green" issues, Virgin Atlantic tries a novel approach to dropping the A340-600. But we will wait to hear exactly which words are used if and when this announced.

More importantly is how these 787s can and might be used. Last week Virgin Atlantic provided a peek at their thinking over the open skies issue. By moving into other European airports and flying to New York, they run the risk of operating with no local feed in cities like Milan. However the move is still clever. Virgin Atlantic has good brand awareness in New York could acquire traffic from there to the European cities it will be serving. Moreover, if it uses 787s for this service, it will be operating the lowest seat cost equipment, providing a revenue cushion.

If Virgin "loses" Heathrow it might de facto turn JFK into a hub for Euro-service. And the 787 will be the perfect foil with which to do it. Consequently we also think British Airways is now a 787 candidate.

While mentioning BA, the "crazy notion" written about below was not based on fact. It was an idea of what might or could happen. If BA selects the 787, which seems to be likely in every pundit's view, we still think the airline will look seriously at the A380. But that's just our opinion.

Thai Airways seems to blame loss on Airbus

By IAG | March 14th, 2007 | Posted in a340, airbus, SAA, thailand | 1 Comment

This is amazing reading – link – the airline's management seems to be blaming Airbus' A340-500 for its huge loss. Further down in the story you see this – "The committee questioned whether it was commercially sound to fly Airbus A340-500 and Airbus A340-600 aircrafts on the two loss-making routes as they were extremely energy inefficient." Ouch.

Notice how the blame game starts. The planes were ordered under previous administration, so blame them. Rather than face up to reality, Thai's managers are fearful about large amounts of the airline's shares moving into foreign hands. This is amazing because instead of dealing with the losses head on, the airline's president Apinan Sumanaseni is only concerned he might lose his job under new owners. Given the way the airline has been run, new owners would do the company a favor by changing managers.

So playing the xenophobia card about foreigners is supposed to make the losses go away? There are strong rumors that the A340-500 fleet has been sold to South African Airways – another well run airline (joke). SAA could use the A340-500's long legs to reach the USA non-stop even though Johannesburg is very hot and very high. Cutting the Africa tech-stops will likely save a lot of money and over an hour.

But the plane does have issues with capacity. It has not lived up to its promise of long range flights with about 300 seats. If the rumor of the trade is true, SAA has likely done a "steal" of a deal. One cannot blame them for that. South Africa is experiencing a travel boom and the 747-400s are often too large for US routes but great for London year round. (Johannesburg-London traffic is equal to Singapore-London) If SAA can install over 250 seats on the A340-500s and manage JNB-ORD non-stop, they might be on to something since the capital cost of plane is likely severely discounted.

Thai Airways seems to blame loss on Airbus

By IAG | March 14th, 2007 | Posted in a340, airbus, SAA, thailand | 1 Comment

This is amazing reading – link – the airline's management seems to be blaming Airbus' A340-500 for its huge loss. Further down in the story you see this – "The committee questioned whether it was commercially sound to fly Airbus A340-500 and Airbus A340-600 aircrafts on the two loss-making routes as they were extremely energy inefficient." Ouch.

Notice how the blame game starts. The planes were ordered under previous administration, so blame them. Rather than face up to reality, Thai's managers are fearful about large amounts of the airline's shares moving into foreign hands. This is amazing because instead of dealing with the losses head on, the airline's president Apinan Sumanaseni is only concerned he might lose his job under new owners. Given the way the airline has been run, new owners would do the company a favor by changing managers.

So playing the xenophobia card about foreigners is supposed to make the losses go away? There are strong rumors that the A340-500 fleet has been sold to South African Airways – another well run airline (joke). SAA could use the A340-500's long legs to reach the USA non-stop even though Johannesburg is very hot and very high. Cutting the Africa tech-stops will likely save a lot of money and over an hour.

But the plane does have issues with capacity. It has not lived up to its promise of long range flights with about 300 seats. If the rumor of the trade is true, SAA has likely done a "steal" of a deal. One cannot blame them for that. South Africa is experiencing a travel boom and the 747-400s are often too large for US routes but great for London year round. (Johannesburg-London traffic is equal to Singapore-London) If SAA can install over 250 seats on the A340-500s and manage JNB-ORD non-stop, they might be on to something since the capital cost of plane is likely severely discounted.

US Airways, China and A340s

By IAG | March 1st, 2007 | Posted in a340, air canada, china, US Airways | No Comments

In something of a surprise announcement, US Airways said it plans to fly to China if it gets permission. This is, to say the least, a long shot. But why not throw its line in anyway? The first reaction from everyone is that its A330s could not reach China from Philly, a route of some 7,400 miles.

Now a scheduling issue occurs. What comes first – permission to fly there or the Air Canada A340s? Also, the exact model A340 is clearly of interest. Air Canada has a number of A340-300s on lease. But it owns two A340-500s and these planes can reach just about anywhere. Only the Boeing 777LR flies further.

Unfortunately the A340-500 has something of a spotty image among airlines. Its legs may be long but its capacity is impacted over long ranges. It should be able to fly over 300 people 8,400 miles. Except it does not really do this – Singapore Airlines flies under 200 people on its planes to the US. Thai has announced it will quit flying the planes to the US because of high fuel burn. Singapore Airline can charge a premium for its seats and we suspect US Airways will not be able to do this. In fact, it is likely to be the low price leader in the China market – making the A340-500 a potentially financially inefficient plane.

Let us assume (not unreasonably) that US Airways cannot compete against the likes of American and Delta for China. Where can US Airways fly these A340s then? Despite the common cockpit, the A340 is quite a lot more airplane than the A330. A small sub-fleet is not easy to integrate. Yes, US Airways wants to a be a big overseas airline – but which markets beckon?

Just when at first glance things seem a bit bleak, note that US Airways has two aces in the hole that most people forget about. Those are Las Vegas and Phoenix. If you think Philadelphia has money to throw at a China route, then imagine what Las Vegas can offer. We think a Las Vegas-Shanghai flight would be sold out every trip. As evidence that China is fast approaching ex-Communist status, we offer this week's China-inspired global stock market meltdown. The Chinese are inveterate gamblers and growing richer at fabulous rates. Las Vegas is irresistible to them we suggest.

So we think US Airways acquisition of long haul planes is a very good idea. If not China, the whole remaining huge Pacific market is open to them out of their western hubs. In fact its a surprise it has taken them this long to embark on such a strategy.

US Airways, China and A340s

By IAG | March 1st, 2007 | Posted in a340, air canada, china, US Airways | No Comments

In something of a surprise announcement, US Airways said it plans to fly to China if it gets permission. This is, to say the least, a long shot. But why not throw its line in anyway? The first reaction from everyone is that its A330s could not reach China from Philly, a route of some 7,400 miles.

Now a scheduling issue occurs. What comes first – permission to fly there or the Air Canada A340s? Also, the exact model A340 is clearly of interest. Air Canada has a number of A340-300s on lease. But it owns two A340-500s and these planes can reach just about anywhere. Only the Boeing 777LR flies further.

Unfortunately the A340-500 has something of a spotty image among airlines. Its legs may be long but its capacity is impacted over long ranges. It should be able to fly over 300 people 8,400 miles. Except it does not really do this – Singapore Airlines flies under 200 people on its planes to the US. Thai has announced it will quit flying the planes to the US because of high fuel burn. Singapore Airline can charge a premium for its seats and we suspect US Airways will not be able to do this. In fact, it is likely to be the low price leader in the China market – making the A340-500 a potentially financially inefficient plane.

Let us assume (not unreasonably) that US Airways cannot compete against the likes of American and Delta for China. Where can US Airways fly these A340s then? Despite the common cockpit, the A340 is quite a lot more airplane than the A330. A small sub-fleet is not easy to integrate. Yes, US Airways wants to a be a big overseas airline – but which markets beckon?

Just when at first glance things seem a bit bleak, note that US Airways has two aces in the hole that most people forget about. Those are Las Vegas and Phoenix. If you think Philadelphia has money to throw at a China route, then imagine what Las Vegas can offer. We think a Las Vegas-Shanghai flight would be sold out every trip. As evidence that China is fast approaching ex-Communist status, we offer this week's China-inspired global stock market meltdown. The Chinese are inveterate gamblers and growing richer at fabulous rates. Las Vegas is irresistible to them we suggest.

So we think US Airways acquisition of long haul planes is a very good idea. If not China, the whole remaining huge Pacific market is open to them out of their western hubs. In fact its a surprise it has taken them this long to embark on such a strategy.

A340 model

By IAG | February 13th, 2007 | Posted in a340, airbus | No Comments

Remember the piece we had on the model A380? How about this A340 model?

A340 model

By IAG | February 13th, 2007 | Posted in a340, airbus | No Comments

Remember the piece we had on the model A380? How about this A340 model?

Airbus Facing Pressure To Update A340

By IAG | January 16th, 2006 | Posted in a340 | No Comments

Reuters — Airbus is expected to announce record sales and aircraft output for 2005 on Tuesday but could be forced to update the four-engine A340 to fight rival Boeing's 777, a US newspaper reported on Monday.

The three versions of the Airbus A340 won only 15 orders in the 11 months to November, according to the most recent figures Airbus published, the Wall Street Journal said.

The two-engine A330-300 also won 15 orders. But Boeing's competing 777 models won 154 orders last year.

Airlines say that the 777 is beating the A340 because it is newer and less expensive to fuel and maintain, it said.

According to aviation executives, modifying a plane like the A340 could cost USD$1 billion.
———-

Yes Airbus has got caught. Yet you can be sure the spin from Airbus' PR will make it positive. The current 340-600 is heavy and less fuel efficient because its reinforced hull is so much longer than the original 340-200. Air France, is a major Airbus customer and also a big 777 user. It is one of a few airlines that has flown both A340s and 777s on the same routes. WSJ reports that Chief Financial Officer Philippe Calavia said a first-generation A340-300 from the 1990s burns about 15% to 20% more fuel per seat than a 777 of the same vintage. Tim Clark, president of Emirates, said that its new 777-300ERs have had fewer problems than its new A340-500s. The 777 has "exceeded all its planned performance criteria" for fuel consumption and range, Mr. Clark said. "That's why there's a resurgence of interest" in the 777." Air Canada CEO Robert Milton says the 777 has considerable economic efficiencies over Airbus models.

Moreover, Airbus is working so hard on fixing the 380 plus its commitment to the 350. There is simply no money for a 340 fix. Unless the Euro-gnomes step up, taxing the EC a bit more to help out. But with the WTO issue so hot, we don't think that dog will hunt right now. Boeing's 777 has boxed Airbus into a corner for now. Once the 380 is rolling, revenues will improve at EADS enough to consider a replacement of the 330/340 line – likely an enhanced 350.

GE90-115

The other story here is that the 777 was "saved" by the GE engine. Its lower than expected fuel burn and incredible power, mated with fabulous maintenance changed the plane completely. The big GE gave the 777-300 a new lease of life.

Airbus Facing Pressure To Update A340

By IAG | January 16th, 2006 | Posted in a340 | No Comments

Reuters — Airbus is expected to announce record sales and aircraft output for 2005 on Tuesday but could be forced to update the four-engine A340 to fight rival Boeing's 777, a US newspaper reported on Monday.

The three versions of the Airbus A340 won only 15 orders in the 11 months to November, according to the most recent figures Airbus published, the Wall Street Journal said.

The two-engine A330-300 also won 15 orders. But Boeing's competing 777 models won 154 orders last year.

Airlines say that the 777 is beating the A340 because it is newer and less expensive to fuel and maintain, it said.

According to aviation executives, modifying a plane like the A340 could cost USD$1 billion.
———-

Yes Airbus has got caught. Yet you can be sure the spin from Airbus' PR will make it positive. The current 340-600 is heavy and less fuel efficient because its reinforced hull is so much longer than the original 340-200. Air France, is a major Airbus customer and also a big 777 user. It is one of a few airlines that has flown both A340s and 777s on the same routes. WSJ reports that Chief Financial Officer Philippe Calavia said a first-generation A340-300 from the 1990s burns about 15% to 20% more fuel per seat than a 777 of the same vintage. Tim Clark, president of Emirates, said that its new 777-300ERs have had fewer problems than its new A340-500s. The 777 has "exceeded all its planned performance criteria" for fuel consumption and range, Mr. Clark said. "That's why there's a resurgence of interest" in the 777." Air Canada CEO Robert Milton says the 777 has considerable economic efficiencies over Airbus models.

Moreover, Airbus is working so hard on fixing the 380 plus its commitment to the 350. There is simply no money for a 340 fix. Unless the Euro-gnomes step up, taxing the EC a bit more to help out. But with the WTO issue so hot, we don't think that dog will hunt right now. Boeing's 777 has boxed Airbus into a corner for now. Once the 380 is rolling, revenues will improve at EADS enough to consider a replacement of the 330/340 line – likely an enhanced 350.

GE90-115

The other story here is that the 777 was "saved" by the GE engine. Its lower than expected fuel burn and incredible power, mated with fabulous maintenance changed the plane completely. The big GE gave the 777-300 a new lease of life.