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AF447 – a pilot's thoughts

We made contact with an industry connection who is a certified A330 check captain to talk about the preliminary BEA report on AF447. Take a listen, it is uncomfortable feedback.

In other news:

  • Airbus delivers its first A330 tanker
  • Embraer pauses – a big mistake?
  • An electric airplane

Subscribe to our analysis and opinion behind the headlines at Blackprogram

SAS tries to sell its bmi stake

bmi stock is a hot commodity right now. The airline's slots at Heathrow have shot up in value. Scandinavian Airlines has been touting its 20% stake in bmi this week, trying to find a buyer among other airlines or private equity. An obvious buyer is Lufthansa, the other major stakeholder than Sir Michael Bishop, the CEO.

There is a lot of jockeying going on right now among Europe's airlines. Reports are that Lufthansa is sniffing around Alitalia. Texas Pacific is also looking there, as well as at Iberia. The three main players (and alliances) likely to be left standing after an consolidation will include British Airways (a stakeholder in Iberia already), Air France/KLM and Lufthansa. The question will be which of the others will be aligned with which of these three.

SAS' stake in bmi is a great first card to play. SAS is in the Star Alliance, making it a friend of Lufthansa. So a deal between them on bmi is likely. It could be that SAS goes public on its bmi stake sale to make sure it gets the highest price – friendship only goes so far, after all.

SAS tries to sell its bmi stake

bmi stock is a hot commodity right now. The airline's slots at Heathrow have shot up in value. Scandinavian Airlines has been touting its 20% stake in bmi this week, trying to find a buyer among other airlines or private equity. An obvious buyer is Lufthansa, the other major stakeholder than Sir Michael Bishop, the CEO.

There is a lot of jockeying going on right now among Europe's airlines. Reports are that Lufthansa is sniffing around Alitalia. Texas Pacific is also looking there, as well as at Iberia. The three main players (and alliances) likely to be left standing after an consolidation will include British Airways (a stakeholder in Iberia already), Air France/KLM and Lufthansa. The question will be which of the others will be aligned with which of these three.

SAS' stake in bmi is a great first card to play. SAS is in the Star Alliance, making it a friend of Lufthansa. So a deal between them on bmi is likely. It could be that SAS goes public on its bmi stake sale to make sure it gets the highest price – friendship only goes so far, after all.

Airline consolidation in EC

Even without the Open Skies issue, it seems Euro-airlines are starting to coalesce into bigger groups. Last week it was the in the UK, this week its in Germany. Spain's Iberia may be in play, depending on you read and listen to.

Air Berlin agreed to acquire 100% of LTU for €140m in cash plus the assumption of between €190 and 200m of debt. Through this acquisition, Air Berlin become the fourth largest airline for European traffic, behind Ryanair, Air France/KLM and Lufthansa.

Note the action is among airlines that are not exactly legacy carriers. Its the grow, grow, grow attitude that the likes of Lufthansa has to be watching. There are only so many people – and as noted before, Euro-populations are not growing.

Air travel seems to be fragmenting more and more. Rather than a rosy future for LCCs, there is an increasing case of hybrids developing. This idea was first put forward by Timothy O'Neil-Dunne at T2Impact.com. The Internet continues to play its part; driving consumers to shop around for the pieces they want. Not for them the one-size-fits-all. The future in the EC seems to be evolving towards a la carte options. This means the business of selling travel will grow more complicated. Perhaps this is why these vacation airline companies are merging.

Travel suppliers are going to have an ever tougher time because brands are growing less important. Ryanair has started exploiting this idea and outsources everything it can in terms of product and charges for everything it can – but what of even its brand? Now think about monolithic companies like British Airways, Air France, Lufthansa, etc. Not pretty is it? Can they handle this fragmentation without breaking their core model?

Holiday makers are going to cut and paste what they want into travel experiences that suit them. The only people driven to stick with a brand potentially is the business traveler. But even business travelers have learned of the benefits LCCs have to offer.

Airline consolidation in EC

Even without the Open Skies issue, it seems Euro-airlines are starting to coalesce into bigger groups. Last week it was the in the UK, this week its in Germany. Spain's Iberia may be in play, depending on you read and listen to.

Air Berlin agreed to acquire 100% of LTU for €140m in cash plus the assumption of between €190 and 200m of debt. Through this acquisition, Air Berlin become the fourth largest airline for European traffic, behind Ryanair, Air France/KLM and Lufthansa.

Note the action is among airlines that are not exactly legacy carriers. Its the grow, grow, grow attitude that the likes of Lufthansa has to be watching. There are only so many people – and as noted before, Euro-populations are not growing.

Air travel seems to be fragmenting more and more. Rather than a rosy future for LCCs, there is an increasing case of hybrids developing. This idea was first put forward by Timothy O'Neil-Dunne at T2Impact.com. The Internet continues to play its part; driving consumers to shop around for the pieces they want. Not for them the one-size-fits-all. The future in the EC seems to be evolving towards a la carte options. This means the business of selling travel will grow more complicated. Perhaps this is why these vacation airline companies are merging.

Travel suppliers are going to have an ever tougher time because brands are growing less important. Ryanair has started exploiting this idea and outsources everything it can in terms of product and charges for everything it can – but what of even its brand? Now think about monolithic companies like British Airways, Air France, Lufthansa, etc. Not pretty is it? Can they handle this fragmentation without breaking their core model?

Holiday makers are going to cut and paste what they want into travel experiences that suit them. The only people driven to stick with a brand potentially is the business traveler. But even business travelers have learned of the benefits LCCs have to offer.

Lufthansa in talks to buy Iberia

Europe's airlines are starting to consolidate. Lufthansa has started discussions on a possible move to buy 'all or part' of Spanish airline Iberia, French daily La Tribune reports. But Iberia has denied the report according to Dow Jones. We think La Tribune got it right. Yesterday, ATW reported Lufthansa Group's preliminary full-year financial results and said it expects full-year earnings attributable to shareholders to soar nearly 77% to $1.05b. That helps a lot.

Without citing sources, La Tribune says Lufthansa had opened discussions — but not negotiations — on a possible move to buy a "key stake" in Iberia, which is currently 10% owned by British Airways. Such a move could create an airline that would carry 100m passengers yearly, compared to 70m carried by Air France-KLM.

This news must thrill Alitalia because it almost certainly means that Air France/KLM will snatch them from oblivion. Iberia's finance director already raised the possibility of a tie-up with Lufthansa or Air France-KLM in a newspaper interview last November. We don't think this wave of consolidation makes Olympic a runner though.

Lufthansa in talks to buy Iberia

Europe's airlines are starting to consolidate. Lufthansa has started discussions on a possible move to buy 'all or part' of Spanish airline Iberia, French daily La Tribune reports. But Iberia has denied the report according to Dow Jones. We think La Tribune got it right. Yesterday, ATW reported Lufthansa Group's preliminary full-year financial results and said it expects full-year earnings attributable to shareholders to soar nearly 77% to $1.05b. That helps a lot.

Without citing sources, La Tribune says Lufthansa had opened discussions — but not negotiations — on a possible move to buy a "key stake" in Iberia, which is currently 10% owned by British Airways. Such a move could create an airline that would carry 100m passengers yearly, compared to 70m carried by Air France-KLM.

This news must thrill Alitalia because it almost certainly means that Air France/KLM will snatch them from oblivion. Iberia's finance director already raised the possibility of a tie-up with Lufthansa or Air France-KLM in a newspaper interview last November. We don't think this wave of consolidation makes Olympic a runner though.