In June Boeing's 787 program suffered a potential setback when engineers discovered problems while testing a section of the new airplane, but the glitch was not expected to delay the 787's highly anticipated debut in 2008. This story stung Boeing in the midst of its runaway successful launch and sales of the 787. At the time the story got much less attention than Airbus’ A380 delay announcements.

If the A380 is a complex new plane, the 787 is much more so. Whereas the A380 is complicated, it does not exploit as much emerging technology as the 787. Boeing is using new materials for 50% of the plane that are proving to be more complex than first thought. It also has dozens of suppliers around the world sending parts to Everett. For example the project is so complex that three new 747 freighters are being built to ferry parts from Asia. This plane may be running late – with consequent impact on everything else. The silence from Boeing is serene. Today an An124 ferried in parts from Kawasaki for tests. The need for keeping the parts flowing into the process is crucial because Boeing is planning on assembling a 787 in three days once in full production. The complexity of steady supply flow is not unlike conducting an orchestra with players in different parts of the world. The chance of music becoming cacophony is very real.

Boeing believes the 787 will fly for the first time in mid-2007. However, there are challenges. The plane is reportedly 2% overweight. Not much one would think, but potentially crucial for performance guarantees. Boeing did a splendid job on the 777-300ER, coming in underweight with better fuel burn. This raised expectations because the plane sold very well after this news. Boeing wants to repeat this success, so the 787 is on diet. This problem is one Boeing likely will solve because it falls within its internal engineering skill set. They have even removed paint to reduce weight. Working to that level of detail tells you how determined they are to lose excess weight. Boeing has transferred many engineers from other programs to ensure the 787 program is short of nothing in terms of mental horsepower. Furthermore, Boeing has managed to isolate information on the program very well. Few people outside the program know what the state of play really is. As far as Boeing is concerned, everything is going according to plan. However, other programs have seen delays as the 787 program has sucked up engineering brainpower.

The most complex problem Boeing faces is the 787's very long supply chain. Boeing has not been as dependant on suppliers before making the project much more complex. Indeed, the supply chain is more like that of Airbus, with factories all over and we know what this did to Airbus' schedules. Boeing has to develop contingency plans to be able to produce key parts internally in case suppliers run late. It is very difficult to watch over a remote process. The company will move mountains to avoid painful problems they have experienced before. Airbus A380 delay woes only serve to underline how important it is to avoid these at all costs. Fortunately, Boeing has sold a lot of 787s, so cost overruns can be amortized more easily.

We think the 787 program is proving to be more complicated than planned. The chance of a delay is high and rumors of six months delay are growing.

Just to be sporting, we offer a bet. If Boeing delivers the 787 on time, we will send 787 Program Manager Mike Bair a bottle of Balvenie 21 year old (an awesome single malt Scotch) with which he can toast his team’s success. Hopefully he will honor the bet, and send one to us, if there is a delay.

In June Boeing's 787 program suffered a potential setback when engineers discovered problems while testing a section of the new airplane, but the glitch was not expected to delay the 787's highly anticipated debut in 2008. This story stung Boeing in the midst of its runaway successful launch and sales of the 787. At the time the story got much less attention than Airbus’ A380 delay announcements.

If the A380 is a complex new plane, the 787 is much more so. Whereas the A380 is complicated, it does not exploit as much emerging technology as the 787. Boeing is using new materials for 50% of the plane that are proving to be more complex than first thought. It also has dozens of suppliers around the world sending parts to Everett. For example the project is so complex that three new 747 freighters are being built to ferry parts from Asia. This plane may be running late – with consequent impact on everything else. The silence from Boeing is serene. Today an An124 ferried in parts from Kawasaki for tests. The need for keeping the parts flowing into the process is crucial because Boeing is planning on assembling a 787 in three days once in full production. The complexity of steady supply flow is not unlike conducting an orchestra with players in different parts of the world. The chance of music becoming cacophony is very real.

Boeing believes the 787 will fly for the first time in mid-2007. However, there are challenges. The plane is reportedly 2% overweight. Not much one would think, but potentially crucial for performance guarantees. Boeing did a splendid job on the 777-300ER, coming in underweight with better fuel burn. This raised expectations because the plane sold very well after this news. Boeing wants to repeat this success, so the 787 is on diet. This problem is one Boeing likely will solve because it falls within its internal engineering skill set. They have even removed paint to reduce weight. Working to that level of detail tells you how determined they are to lose excess weight. Boeing has transferred many engineers from other programs to ensure the 787 program is short of nothing in terms of mental horsepower. Furthermore, Boeing has managed to isolate information on the program very well. Few people outside the program know what the state of play really is. As far as Boeing is concerned, everything is going according to plan. However, other programs have seen delays as the 787 program has sucked up engineering brainpower.

The most complex problem Boeing faces is the 787's very long supply chain. Boeing has not been as dependant on suppliers before making the project much more complex. Indeed, the supply chain is more like that of Airbus, with factories all over and we know what this did to Airbus' schedules. Boeing has to develop contingency plans to be able to produce key parts internally in case suppliers run late. It is very difficult to watch over a remote process. The company will move mountains to avoid painful problems they have experienced before. Airbus A380 delay woes only serve to underline how important it is to avoid these at all costs. Fortunately, Boeing has sold a lot of 787s, so cost overruns can be amortized more easily.

We think the 787 program is proving to be more complicated than planned. The chance of a delay is high and rumors of six months delay are growing.

Just to be sporting, we offer a bet. If Boeing delivers the 787 on time, we will send 787 Program Manager Mike Bair a bottle of Balvenie 21 year old (an awesome single malt Scotch) with which he can toast his team’s success. Hopefully he will honor the bet, and send one to us, if there is a delay.