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Republic Airways – strange times

Republic Airways held its annual meeting last Thursday and announced $100m in spending cuts. There were other items from the meeting that don't bode well – the market is hyper competitive and the airline has no pricing power. Its competitors are too big and strong. Moreover its pilots are irritable. So the idea of cutting costs by $100m has to make any vendor antsy. Especially if you are Airbus, Embraer and Bombardier.

The airline's CEO admitted they will be reviewing some E190 deliveries ("tentative"). But there was word the airline is looking at A320neos – well that should look like a long shot now. Also, it would be a nervous time for Bombardier as Republic's order was the one that got everyone to take the CS seriously. But if Republic is going a bit shaky then a whole lot of other things are going to possibly fall off, too.

The airline is fighting in Denver with Southwest and United. In Milwaukee its up against AirTran (Southwest soon). They don't really have a market where they are stronger than anyone else.  Plus much of their business is as a regional jet contractor. These are tough times. When Republic bought Frontier (and Midwest) most observers thought this was a great move because the company had the money and seemed poised to reduce its reliance on contract flying. But then came a weak economy, tougher competitors and horrible fuel costs. Whatever margin of error was in their favor evaporated.

It will be interesting to watch what comes next – if the airline actually does go forward with the Airbus neo deal you know its a deal that Airbus bought to hurt Bombardier and has nothing to do with being nice to Republic. Moreover, if Republic does this deal it is because they are on hard times. A win for Airbus in the short term but they buy a lot of risk doing the deal.

In other news:

  • Thai's fleet update close
  • IATA cuts back profit expectations
  • Traffic numbers

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KC-30 Wins!

Podcast on the selection with Jon Ostrower.

Podcast – French elections & EADS/Airbus

We just completed a fascinating interview with The Economist's Europe Business Editor.

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EADS, A350 and France

Ever the dysfunctional family, Europe's commercial aerospace business cannot seem to get matters squared away. The Paris show is a few short months away. Big announcements are due – the absence of these make the two primary players very antsy. So the news from both firms slows as the show approaches in order to provide daily news.

So in the run up to show time, any bad news leaks are awful. News like this for example: The French government has blocked a proposal by managers of EADS to raise up to $4 billion this year to help finance the Airbus jet A350XWB.

Airbus needs lots of capital to restructure and pay for the A350's development. There are all sorts of machinations going on over the EADS dividend too. Clearly the goings on inside EADS are still highly unsettled and this continues to hamper Airbus. Customers must be extremely agitated. Their loyalty is being tested unmercifully.

Those companies that jumped on the 787 bandwagon must be pleased with their decision. Even if they did not get a bargain, at least they will get a plane. Every day that Airbus does not get its (read EADS) house in order causes more customer angst. Yes the A320 program is purring along, but the big money is in bigger jets. Airbus only has one program working well (A330) in that field. This is not a prescription for good news.

As if this was not enough, the former boss of Airbus parent firm EADS, Noel Forgeard, received a severance package of more than 8.5m euros ($11.5m). In addition, EADS documents showed he will get 2.4m euros more over the next two years not to join a competing firm. This last sentence is of course the funniest thing in aviation news right now. Which aerospace firm in the world would hire him? In fact, we bet that Airbus' competitors would offer pay this sum if he went back to Airbus!

EADS, A350 and France

Ever the dysfunctional family, Europe's commercial aerospace business cannot seem to get matters squared away. The Paris show is a few short months away. Big announcements are due – the absence of these make the two primary players very antsy. So the news from both firms slows as the show approaches in order to provide daily news.

So in the run up to show time, any bad news leaks are awful. News like this for example: The French government has blocked a proposal by managers of EADS to raise up to $4 billion this year to help finance the Airbus jet A350XWB.

Airbus needs lots of capital to restructure and pay for the A350's development. There are all sorts of machinations going on over the EADS dividend too. Clearly the goings on inside EADS are still highly unsettled and this continues to hamper Airbus. Customers must be extremely agitated. Their loyalty is being tested unmercifully.

Those companies that jumped on the 787 bandwagon must be pleased with their decision. Even if they did not get a bargain, at least they will get a plane. Every day that Airbus does not get its (read EADS) house in order causes more customer angst. Yes the A320 program is purring along, but the big money is in bigger jets. Airbus only has one program working well (A330) in that field. This is not a prescription for good news.

As if this was not enough, the former boss of Airbus parent firm EADS, Noel Forgeard, received a severance package of more than 8.5m euros ($11.5m). In addition, EADS documents showed he will get 2.4m euros more over the next two years not to join a competing firm. This last sentence is of course the funniest thing in aviation news right now. Which aerospace firm in the world would hire him? In fact, we bet that Airbus' competitors would offer pay this sum if he went back to Airbus!

Austria's Typhoon deals looks wobbly

Austria’s air force chief has been suspended over irregularities in a 2003 contract to buy 18 Eurofighters, Austria’s Defense Minister Norbert Darabos announced April 10.
Gen. Erich Wolf has not managed to clear up suspicions that a lobbyist for the plane’s constructor EADS had paid 87,000 euros ($117,000) to a company owned by Wolf’s wife when the contract was being negotiated.

This deal is really odd – could $117,000 be all it takes to get cooperation? Could the general be so naive to think money paid into his wife's business could not be traced? The fact that Austria may now amend the contract is understandable. The bigger news here is that EADS may be in trouble for poor decisions – again. That the general gets disciplined is to be expected. But whose head at EADS will be chopped? Every nation that has Eurofighter/Typhoons needs to wonder whose palm got greased. The Saudi deal no doubt would be a real juicy one to check out – but nobody dares. Right?

Qatar backs up its interest in EADS

The story has been bubbling for weeks. Qatar wants to invest in EADS by taking a 10% stake. Now this has been followed up with a massive order. Reports indicate that Qatar Airways is about to announce an order for the beleaguered A350 – by signing an LOI for 80 planes. This is truly a monster order and worth $16b.Not that Qatar is going to pay anything close to sticker price. The formal signing is likely to take place at the Paris air show in June. Qatar is planning to include orders for all three versions of the A350 including 20 of the A350-1000, the biggest version at around 350 seats.

Akbar Al Baker, Qatar Airways chief executive said the airline, which had previously announced firm orders for two A380s, would definitely convert its options for two more A380s into firm orders, and it was also discussing internally additional A380 orders. Ambitious don't you think?

But wait, there's more. The other shoe has to drop. This deal is going to make the folks in Dubai's aviation world sit up and pay attention. There is another ambitious crowd over there that does not like playing second fiddle to anyone. Note that Qatar has the first delivery in 2013 of the A350 and Al Baker said that it was written into the contract that Qatar Airways would be the launch customer. Aviation in the Gulf is fast becoming more than a commercial enterprise; its now also a foreign policy tool, an industrial investment policy and flat out hubris. The next move by the Al Maktoum family in Dubai will be interesting. How many slots does Boeing have for 787s we are wondering?

Qatar backs up its interest in EADS

The story has been bubbling for weeks. Qatar wants to invest in EADS by taking a 10% stake. Now this has been followed up with a massive order. Reports indicate that Qatar Airways is about to announce an order for the beleaguered A350 – by signing an LOI for 80 planes. This is truly a monster order and worth $16b.Not that Qatar is going to pay anything close to sticker price. The formal signing is likely to take place at the Paris air show in June. Qatar is planning to include orders for all three versions of the A350 including 20 of the A350-1000, the biggest version at around 350 seats.

Akbar Al Baker, Qatar Airways chief executive said the airline, which had previously announced firm orders for two A380s, would definitely convert its options for two more A380s into firm orders, and it was also discussing internally additional A380 orders. Ambitious don't you think?

But wait, there's more. The other shoe has to drop. This deal is going to make the folks in Dubai's aviation world sit up and pay attention. There is another ambitious crowd over there that does not like playing second fiddle to anyone. Note that Qatar has the first delivery in 2013 of the A350 and Al Baker said that it was written into the contract that Qatar Airways would be the launch customer. Aviation in the Gulf is fast becoming more than a commercial enterprise; its now also a foreign policy tool, an industrial investment policy and flat out hubris. The next move by the Al Maktoum family in Dubai will be interesting. How many slots does Boeing have for 787s we are wondering?

French elections turn Airbus into a political football

A good summary can be found here. Essentially French presidential candidates are falling over each other to save Airbus. These are cynical attempts because the issue is not helping Airbus, its about winning votes. With each additional meddle, Airbus managers are going to be more mired in a political cesspool.

Earlier we wrote about the Apocalypse coming at Airbus. How's this for a comment from the most conservative French pol? "There needs to be a real shareholder, who would be the industrial boss of the company, who decides on management and we should stop this Franco-German parity and just take the best people to take the best decisions," Sarkozy told France 3 television.

A real shareholder who is industrial boss? What arrogance! It would seem Mr. Sarkozy thinks the real boss, the best people, are French. Clearly he would not be thinking the Germans run better companies. While not sure which French companies he might hold up as paragons of management; Germany has more well run big industrial firms than France. We might offer the two countries' auto industries as an example.

Managing Airbus today surely qualifies as among the toughest jobs in the world.

French elections turn Airbus into a political football

A good summary can be found here. Essentially French presidential candidates are falling over each other to save Airbus. These are cynical attempts because the issue is not helping Airbus, its about winning votes. With each additional meddle, Airbus managers are going to be more mired in a political cesspool.

Earlier we wrote about the Apocalypse coming at Airbus. How's this for a comment from the most conservative French pol? "There needs to be a real shareholder, who would be the industrial boss of the company, who decides on management and we should stop this Franco-German parity and just take the best people to take the best decisions," Sarkozy told France 3 television.

A real shareholder who is industrial boss? What arrogance! It would seem Mr. Sarkozy thinks the real boss, the best people, are French. Clearly he would not be thinking the Germans run better companies. While not sure which French companies he might hold up as paragons of management; Germany has more well run big industrial firms than France. We might offer the two countries' auto industries as an example.

Managing Airbus today surely qualifies as among the toughest jobs in the world.