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Today's news

United slims down — What is the news if not another shrink? Here's today big shrink news – The latest layoffs involve nearly 15% of United's 6,518 pilots. The carrier has said it plans to cut its staff by 1,400 to 1,600 as it aims to reduce domestic capacity by 14% in the fourth quarter.

So, as the airline "slims down" how will it ever grow again? With each layoff, and each plane that gets parked, three US airlines are almost certainly going to grow; Southwest, AirTran and jetBlue. Provided their money holds out, perhaps Virgin will also grow.

United is clearly going to hold on to its overseas routes. But with ever more limited feed opportunities, how will these work? Can United sustain with only limited feed and local O&D? For example the Dulles operation depends a lot on feed. As does Chicago. Same for SFO. The picture looks gloomy.

In other news —

  • Service vacuum will be mostly filled
  • Tanker – rebid and flyoff
  • Tom Enders worries about Airbus' reputation
  • This is Etihad's year
  • How it used to be – PanAm 1958

    Subscribe to analysis and opinion behind these headlines at Blackprogram

  • Virgin America's RED

    Listen to why we think this little airline is on to a winner. Podcast here.

    Virgin America fights to keep CEO Reid

    ATW reports the airline does not want to lose its CEO. This is understandable because he is the vision of the startup now. It is also his reputation that has brought the airline its golden list of who's who in the industry as advisor's and directors.

    But Fred Reid has choices. Yesterday we were at a meeting with an airline startup founder (as part of StartupAviation.com, an IAG related business). Every startup needs an experienced "name" to build the team around. And who do you suppose came up as a great candidate?

    There are no doubt many in the industry that admire Reid's experience and could make use of it.

    Virgin America fights to keep CEO Reid

    ATW reports the airline does not want to lose its CEO. This is understandable because he is the vision of the startup now. It is also his reputation that has brought the airline its golden list of who's who in the industry as advisor's and directors.

    But Fred Reid has choices. Yesterday we were at a meeting with an airline startup founder (as part of StartupAviation.com, an IAG related business). Every startup needs an experienced "name" to build the team around. And who do you suppose came up as a great candidate?

    There are no doubt many in the industry that admire Reid's experience and could make use of it.

    Virgin America – what to look for

    Being located in one of the first four cities the airline plans to fly is rather exciting. The promise of its product may separate the airline from its peers – particularly because it has talked up its service offering.

    Virgin America’s “Red System” IFE combines Panasonic audio/video on demand with DISH Network live television. With individual touchscreens and in-seat gaming/QWERTY handsets, it is set in a cabin interior that compares with the premium-only carriers flying the Atlantic. Great ambiance but there is another factor – a human one.

    To push a concept of an airline customers will love is fresh thinking – sort of like Southwest's LUV marketing. While IFE is a great attention grabber and ensures customers pay less attention to other things, the airline will need to be very, very special to avoid an experience much like that of JetBlue. The key ingredient that separates airlines is people – cabin crew. In that regard, Southwest has everyone in the US beat. Constantly bubbly and fun, Southwest's in-flight staff make up for no IFE precisely because they are such a pleasure to deal with. Heck, Southwest's people are its IFE.

    So can Virgin America find people like this? Sure. But it needs to develop a culture that will sustain this behavior. Its easy if you work for Southwest, the airline that always makes a profit, has new planes and runs like an atomic clock. You would also feel bubbly working there. So Virgin America, is going to have two big items it needs to focus on – rock solid IFE (to compete with JetBlue) and out of this world angelic cabin staff (to compete with Southwest).

    Its a tough thing to accomplish. But if they can pull that off, they really will make an impact. A good one at that.

    Virgin America – what to look for

    Being located in one of the first four cities the airline plans to fly is rather exciting. The promise of its product may separate the airline from its peers – particularly because it has talked up its service offering.

    Virgin America’s “Red System” IFE combines Panasonic audio/video on demand with DISH Network live television. With individual touchscreens and in-seat gaming/QWERTY handsets, it is set in a cabin interior that compares with the premium-only carriers flying the Atlantic. Great ambiance but there is another factor – a human one.

    To push a concept of an airline customers will love is fresh thinking – sort of like Southwest's LUV marketing. While IFE is a great attention grabber and ensures customers pay less attention to other things, the airline will need to be very, very special to avoid an experience much like that of JetBlue. The key ingredient that separates airlines is people – cabin crew. In that regard, Southwest has everyone in the US beat. Constantly bubbly and fun, Southwest's in-flight staff make up for no IFE precisely because they are such a pleasure to deal with. Heck, Southwest's people are its IFE.

    So can Virgin America find people like this? Sure. But it needs to develop a culture that will sustain this behavior. Its easy if you work for Southwest, the airline that always makes a profit, has new planes and runs like an atomic clock. You would also feel bubbly working there. So Virgin America, is going to have two big items it needs to focus on – rock solid IFE (to compete with JetBlue) and out of this world angelic cabin staff (to compete with Southwest).

    Its a tough thing to accomplish. But if they can pull that off, they really will make an impact. A good one at that.

    Another Virgin coming

    Its hard to think this is not the conclusion of a quid-pro-quo re EU-US Open Skies. What happens to Fred Reid now? More gems – Virgin America questions the Department’s objection to a restriction preventing Virgin America from operating planes with 20 seats or less because the use of small planes are not typically used by domestic commercial airlines. Virgin America also questions the Department’s objection to a restriction on flights above 85,000 feet, despite “the inability of current civilian jet aircraft to operate at such altitudes,” including those that Virgin America plans to use. We are clearly talking Galactic here.

    From the DOT Docket OST-2005-23307:

    By Order 2006-12-13, issued December 27, 2006, the Department tentatively found that the applicant, Virgin America, Inc. (“Virgin America”), had failed to establish that it was a U.S. citizen and that it would be owned by and remain under the actual control of U.S. citizens. In response to that finding, Virgin America filed a substantially revised application proposing material changes in its financial arrangements, its management, and its corporate governance. Although our decisions on air carrier fitness look at the “totality of the circumstances” surrounding the applicant, and not any single factor, it is quite apparent from the record that Virgin America has either made or offered to make fundamental and highly constructive changes in its application. These modifications, when complemented by certain additional conditions we propose to include, now support a tentative finding that the applicant can meet our stringent tests for citizenship.

    The most important reforms to be undertaken by Virgin America include:

    • Amending a variety of material agreements, including existing aircraft leases, so as to address concerns about the role of the applicant’s largest foreign investor in the formation of the airline, by restricting the Virgin Group’s power over changes in such agreements and other related matters such as capital expenditures.

    • Amending the company’s loan agreements with the Virgin Group and other formative documents to eliminate the latter’s ability (through veto rights and the requirement of prior written consent) to control the applicant’s business.
    • Replacing its current Chief Executive Officer, who the record suggested might be considered “beholden” to foreign interests under DOT precedent, with a new official presumably having no prior affiliation with the non-U.S. investors of Virgin America.
    • Restructuring its board of directors so as to reduce the number of Virgin Group designees.
    • Establishing a voting trust to administer the Virgin Group’s 25 percent equity interest in the airline.

    Our review shows, however, there do remain a few areas where the revised application, as proposed by Virgin America, still falls short of the rigorous standards we apply in determining whether U.S. interests have “actual control” of the airline. Therefore, we are proposing to stipulate further conditions that the applicant must accept (or persuade us not to require) before making its certificate authority effective. Among other things, these conditions include:

    • Requiring that the disinterested directors on the Virgin America board (that is,
      U.S. citizens) separately approve of the appointment or replacement of the trustee of Virgin Group’s shareholdings.

    • Amending the voting trust agreement to require that the Trustee vote its shares proportionally to the other shareholders as to any matter that, in the opinion of the
      U.S. investor directors, creates a conflict of interest between the interests of Virgin Group and that of U.S. shareholders.

    • Modifying the Virgin Trademark License Agreement to remove certain geographic and operational restrictions on Virgin America and the requirement that it pay royalties to the Virgin Group should the applicant conduct operations independent of the Virgin name.
    • Confirming that the current CEO has terminated employment with the applicant within 90 days of the certificate being issued and any follow-on consultancy within 180 days following termination of employment.
    • Submitting copies of all executed and signed agreements prior to certification.
    • Reporting to the Department in advance if any additional loans (or other debt funding) are to be provided to it from the Virgin Group.
      As discussed further below, based on our review of the amended record of this case we now tentatively find that Virgin America will be a citizen of the United States, will be fit, willing, and able to provide interstate scheduled air transportation of persons, property, and mail, and should be issued a certificate of public convenience and necessity authorizing such operations, subject to conditions.
      As is our normal practice, we will provide interested parties 21 days to comment on our tentative findings and conclusions here.

    Southwest returns to SFO

    After leaving in 2001, Southwest decides that it still LUVs the City by the Bay. The carrier has not released specific service details or a timeline, only saying that it is currently in discussions with the Airport and that it aims to return to the West Bay in a meaningful way in the early fall. Southwest says today's announcement does not affect its commitment at Oakland International, where it has 142 daily departures; or Norman Y Mineta San Jose International, where it has 77 daily departures.

    Besides being really good news for the Bay Area generally, it is awful news for Virgin America.